Poll meltdown to spark period of instability for FF Up to 45 TDs fear losing seats in the next Dail

Fianna Fail will be plunged into an intense period of instability after the elections next weekend with up to 45 of the party's sitting TDs now worried they could lose their seats in the next general election.

Under the leadership of Brian Cowen, Fianna Fail has effectively become a peripheral force in Dublin, where it will be hard pressed to retain its single seat in the European election. According to opinion polls, Fianna Fail will also lose the two by-elections in Dublin, and faces further humiliation in the local elections.

Fianna Fail's status as the 'top dogs' in Dublin was epitomised in the 2007 general election, where its achievement in securing 19 of the 46 seats played a key role in sweeping the party into power.

However, under Brian Cowen's leadership the party is now in real danger of replicating the Fine Gael "disaster" of 2002, when it won just three Dublin Dail seats under Michael Noonan.

On its present rating, at the next general election, Fianna Fail would fail to win a single seat in any of the Dublin three-seat constituencies, and could lose both seats in former Taoiseach Bertie Ahern's Dublin Central constituency.

Such a result would end the participation of the Ahern, Haughey and Andrews political dynasties, and the Lenihan and Hanafin dynasties would also struggle to survive.

At a time when the Government is struggling to secure the fiscal independence of the State and save the banking system, Mr Cowen is now dependant on the support of an eclectic group of Independents and renegade Fianna Fail TDs.

So far the support of the Kerry Independent TD, Jackie Healy Rae, has been solid, but in recent times the position of the Independent former Fine Gael minister Michael Lowry has been much more equivocal.

The other Independents whose support Mr Cowen may yet need include the former minister James McDaid, former Fianna Fail TD Joe Behan and the Independent Finian McGrath. However, from next weekend, Mr Cowen is likely to face a prolonged period of growing instability amongst his own TDs.

Last week the Taoiseach ruled out the possibility of a post-election leadership challenge and claimed there were "no maverick TDs" in Fianna Fail. However, informed estimates suggest that he has lost the confidence of two-fifths of his 50 back-bench TDs, with the real level of dissent maybe even higher.

So far the most high-profile expressions of discontent have come from TDs John McGuinness, Tom Kitt, Noel O'Flynn, Pat 'the Cope' Gallagher, John Browne, Ned O'Keeffe and Mattie McGrath. While others have been silent in public, the level of disillusionment with Mr Cowen's leadership is now so high that some Fianna Fail TDs complain if they are not included in any list of putative rebels.

The contrast with the Bertie Ahern era was epitomised by one rebel TD who told the Sunday Independent: "All the women on the doorsteps are saying, 'why did you get rid of Bertie? He would never have taken the Christmas bonus off the pensioners'."

In Munster, meanwhile, the mood was summarised by former minister Ned O'Keeffe who said: "The only difference between now and 1922 is that they're not throwing the contents of their chamber pots at us."

European & Local Elections: Parties and candidates >>

- JOHN DRENNAN